The first game is scheduled for a 2009 release.
Given these situations, the numbers from Bluefly aren’t that bad. I expected a loss simply because money is too tight for most people to be squandering it on a Dolce & Gabanna dress or a Louis Vuitton handbag. So with that in mind, the figures reported are pretty good. Here’s the article from Business Wire
NEW YORK, May 07, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) — Bluefly, Inc. (NASDAQ SmallCap:BFLY), a leading online retailer of designer brands, fashion trends and superior value ( www.bluefly.com ), today announced strong growth in revenue for the first quarter 2008.
Highlights for the first quarter included:
– Revenue increased by approximately 14% to $25.2 million from $22.1 million in first quarter 2007;
– Gross profit increased by approximately 7% to $8.9 million from $8.4 million in the first quarter of 2007;
– Gross margin decreased by 250 basis points to 35.4% from 37.9% in first quarter 2007;
– Operating loss decreased to $2.9 million compared to $3.2 million;
– Average order size increased to $273.65 in 2008 compared to $269.21 in 2007;
– Net loss decreased to $2.9 million from $3.1 million. Loss per share decreased to $0.22 per share from $0.24 per share (based on 13.3 million weighted average shares outstanding after preferred stock dividends in 2008 and 12.9 million weighted average shares outstanding after preferred stock dividends in 2007, both adjusted for the 1 for 10 reverse stock split).
“I am encouraged by the first quarter results, given the softness of the overall retail environment,” said Melissa Payner, Bluefly’s CEO. “Although we made the decision to be somewhat promotional in the early part of the first quarter, we were encouraged by the growth we saw in the margin once we launched our spring collection.”
I own shares of Bluefly.
Looking at the chart over the past few months it was essentially flat but showing resistance at $28. Once it broke through that barrier, I knew it would continue. Current estimates place the stock fairly valued at $36 which is where I have my GTC sell order.
Next year, Iron Man 2 is slated for production with a release in 2010 and two other films are in the works. Captain America and a new Avengers project. Things are looking good right now for Marvel. The self produced Iron Man has shown the industry that Marvel can deliver on its promises. The next big test is this summer’s The Hulk. Edward Norton leads a solid cast but audiences are still trying to recover from Ang Lee’s disastrous version starring Eric Bana and Jennifer Connelly.
If The Hulk is as successful as Iron Man has been, you just might see MVL top $40 this year.
Next on my sell block is Apple. I’ve been “schnitzeling” this one as it has run a lot, but I’m letting the remainder of my shares go to $200 where I think it should be based on earnings and this year’s outlook. Earnings actually point to a $201 stock price but I like to sell into strength instead of waiting for a “top”.
This is exactly what I knew was going to happen. I can tell you that Yahoo shareholders are likely pissed and I wouldn’t be surprised if they get hostile over this. Fans of yahoo of course think this is great but they don’t realize the underlying problems the company is facing. Internet search is no longer the hot ticket when it comes to dominating the market. Take Google for example. They aren’t focused solely on search anymore and have embraced many of the web 2.0 technologies like blogging, third party APIs and soon, the mobile phone market.
Google, unlike yahoo keeps reinventing itself by keeping up with what new devices are in demand and how people are using them. I’m not talking about Google today though…I want to talk about how to make some money on Yahoo now.
Though I believe the company is in dire straits, this 15% plummet in price is good for contrarian style investors because it gives you an in.
Yahoo’s growth is around 19% and trades at 32 times earnings which is too low. It should be trading at38 times earnings giving you a price of about $29 where it was fair value before the Microsoft pullout.
That means you can buy it here 5 points down and probably make some money in the next couple weeks as it shakes out the unbelievers. I’d like to see it come back just a little more before buying it but $24 is a good entry and you can buy more on a dip. I’d look for a sell price of $29-$30 within 18 months.
Yesterday I got to thinking about the huge blockbuster season that happens in Hollywood every summer, and starts this month with the release of Iron Man.
May is traditionally the month the biggest films of the year come out. I’m talking about the huge movies like Transformers, Star Wars, and of course this summer’s Iron Man.
Marvel, the entertainment juggernaut behind Iron Man and also the upcoming The Incredible Hulk is set to make a killing on these two movies. The hype machine has been hard at work for Iron Man but not a lot has come forth about The Incredible Hulk except for a few interviews with stars Tim Roth and Edward Norton. Both films look amazing but what does it mean for Wall Street. Can Marvel make you some money this summer?
Marvel Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: MVL) is a multi-media company. They make movies, comics and video games. Most people are familiar with their Icons like Spider Man, The Incredible Hulk, The X-Men and Iron Man. They also license these properties out to video game makers and television producers. Franchising is a major part of any entertainment company and Marvel is going to cash in this summer. There’s both an Iron Man game and a Hulk game coming out and new comics for both of these characters are already on shelves.
The stock is trading at 18 times earnings and looking at about 10% growth over the next year. At $30 a share it’s nearing the 52 week high once again and should it break that level we could be looking at a $40 stock. The average 10 day volume is around 700k shares so its thinly traded and not very volitile. They also don’t pay a dividend but the 52 week low was only $21. With a 10 point swing in either direction this is a solid performer and I see a short term price of $32 before the stock is even value. I don’t normally recommend buying a stock after it has run as much as this has, but I do see some opportunity here for a quick profit.
Not that its really going to solve much of the crisis we are in but the government hopes it will stem the bleeding of our economy. According to President Bush, “The money is going to help Americans offset the high prices we’re seeing at the gas pump, the grocery store and also give our economy a boost to help us pull out of this economic slowdown”
I’ll tell you where a lot of that money is going to go if it hasn’t already. Taxes. Yep, most average Americans are putting the money they owe on taxes onto their credit cards which just makes the situation worse and many are going to apply this rebate to those credit cards.
Not me. I’m buying a new bed and some much needed shelving for our house which should be about $1k of the $1500 I’m getting. That leaves a little money for investing and groceries. Sure, I could pay down more of my credit card debt but I’ll let my regular paycheck do that. 
After nearly losing their spot on NASDAQ earlier in the month and gaining a much needed $3 million cash infusion from primary shareholder George Soros, Bluefly and its shareholders approved a 1 for 10 reverse split putting the stock around $4.50. Since then, low volume has kept the stock from moving.
At this point its merely a waiting game. I wouldn’t advise buying any of this stock at this time.
I have shares of BFLY
Quoted from marketwatch:
Apple (AAPL) earned $1.05 billion, or $1.16 a share, on $7.51 billion in revenue for the quarter, compared with the same period a year ago when Apple earned $770 million, or 87 cents a share, on sales of $5.26 billion.
The results topped Apple’s forecast of a profit of 94 cents a share and $6.8 billion in revenue. Analysts surveyed by FactSet Research had estimated Apple would earn $1.05 a share on sales of $7 billion.
Apple said that it sold 2.29 million Macintosh computers, 1.7 million iPhones and 10.6 million iPods during the quarter ended March 31.
For its fiscal third-quarter, Apple Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer said the company expects to earn $1 a share on revenue of $7.2 billion. Analysts had previously forecast Apple to earn $1.09 a share on $7.23 billion in sales.
Shares in after hours trading lost $7 or 4.3% after the news on the lowered guidance for the second quarter.
I smell a bargain coming. The last time Apple took a nosedive I made $600. Wait for the pullback and pull the trigger when the action levels off. Apple is one of the few juggernaut stocks that always seems to work its way out of these slumps.
I love when the pundits come out of the woodwork trying to figure out why a stock like Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) can’t hold a fair valuation price. Everyone has an explanation as to why the stock plunged over $8 in one day after earnings were announced.
Earnings were in line but with lowered guidance (by about a penny per share) due to rising costs in advertising and shipping. There’s an article on Seeking Alpha about the possible correlation between the writer’s strike last winter and the increase in stock price that may be due to more people going online to rent and watch movies. Really? You think the only reason for the increase in stock price over the past several months is because of a slew or Re-runs on TV? That’s absurd.
I think if you are going to make a correlation it’s more likely that there’s just not much good television on. Lost is hit and miss and Heroes has been offline since the beginning of the strike but even before that, television just isn’t as compelling anymore. More people are watching cable channels and movie channels but if we look specifically at Netflix, you’ll find they are offering superior service over anyone else out there.
With 75,000 titles including blu-ray and more of those titles being offered for their instant viewing service every day, Netflix is giving subscribers the most bang for their buck. The original decline in stock price can be attributed to Blockbuster’s(NYSE:BBI) attempt to gain footing in the same market and ultimately failing. While at first wooing customers from Netflix to Blockbuster, the pricing packages were impressive and the ability to turn in an online rental for an in-store rental but ultimately not sustainable and Blockbuster began phasing out the program as well as increasing subscriber fees. This basically led to a surge in subscribers coming back to Netflix and subsequently a rise in stock price.
I’ve already written about the valuation of Netflix and my $40 price target which has come and gone. So where does Netflix go from here? Even with the .01 cent variance in guidance, Netflix has 25% growth over the next year and 29 PE. Remember that institutional investors are willing to pay twice the growth in PE so that means on the low end you still have an upside price of $39 and on the high side a target price of $52.
On this pullback, I’d be buying NFLX right here, right now.
I do not own shares of Netflix or Blockbuster
Selling into strength (prices moving upward) is the best way to ensure you are profitable. Solid stocks like Apple and Google are great examples of buying on the way down and selling on the upside. You don’t make any money until you sell.
