The first game is scheduled for a 2009 release.

Given these situations, the numbers from Bluefly aren’t that bad. I expected a loss simply because money is too tight for most people to be squandering it on a Dolce & Gabanna dress or a Louis Vuitton handbag. So with that in mind, the figures reported are pretty good. Here’s the article from Business Wire

NEW YORK, May 07, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) — Bluefly, Inc. (NASDAQ SmallCap:BFLY), a leading online retailer of designer brands, fashion trends and superior value ( www.bluefly.com ), today announced strong growth in revenue for the first quarter 2008.

Highlights for the first quarter included:

– Revenue increased by approximately 14% to $25.2 million from $22.1 million in first quarter 2007;

– Gross profit increased by approximately 7% to $8.9 million from $8.4 million in the first quarter of 2007;

– Gross margin decreased by 250 basis points to 35.4% from 37.9% in first quarter 2007;

– Operating loss decreased to $2.9 million compared to $3.2 million;

– Average order size increased to $273.65 in 2008 compared to $269.21 in 2007;

– Net loss decreased to $2.9 million from $3.1 million. Loss per share decreased to $0.22 per share from $0.24 per share (based on 13.3 million weighted average shares outstanding after preferred stock dividends in 2008 and 12.9 million weighted average shares outstanding after preferred stock dividends in 2007, both adjusted for the 1 for 10 reverse stock split).

“I am encouraged by the first quarter results, given the softness of the overall retail environment,” said Melissa Payner, Bluefly’s CEO. “Although we made the decision to be somewhat promotional in the early part of the first quarter, we were encouraged by the growth we saw in the margin once we launched our spring collection.”

I own shares of Bluefly.

Looking at the chart over the past few months it was essentially flat but showing resistance at $28. Once it broke through that barrier, I knew it would continue. Current estimates place the stock fairly valued at $36 which is where I have my GTC sell order.

Next year, Iron Man 2 is slated for production with a release in 2010 and two other films are in the works. Captain America and a new Avengers project. Things are looking good right now for Marvel. The self produced Iron Man has shown the industry that Marvel can deliver on its promises. The next big test is this summer’s The Hulk. Edward Norton leads a solid cast but audiences are still trying to recover from Ang Lee’s disastrous version starring Eric Bana and Jennifer Connelly.

If The Hulk is as successful as Iron Man has been, you just might see MVL top $40 this year.

Next on my sell block is Apple. I’ve been “schnitzeling” this one as it has run a lot, but I’m letting the remainder of my shares go to $200 where I think it should be based on earnings and this year’s outlook. Earnings actually point to a $201 stock price but I like to sell into strength instead of waiting for a “top”.

This is exactly what I knew was going to happen. I can tell you that Yahoo shareholders are likely pissed and I wouldn’t be surprised if they get hostile over this.  Fans of yahoo of course think this is great but they don’t realize the underlying problems the company is facing. Internet search is no longer the hot ticket when it comes to dominating the market. Take Google for example. They aren’t focused solely on search anymore and have embraced many of the web 2.0 technologies like blogging, third party APIs and soon, the mobile phone market.

Google, unlike yahoo keeps reinventing itself by keeping up with what new devices are in demand and how people are using them.  I’m not talking about Google today though…I want to talk about how to make some money on Yahoo now.

Though I believe the company is in dire straits, this 15% plummet in price is good for contrarian style investors because it gives you an in.

Yahoo’s growth is around 19% and trades at 32 times earnings which is too low. It should be trading at38 times earnings giving you a price of about $29 where it was fair value before the Microsoft pullout.

That means you can buy it here 5 points down and probably make some money in the next couple weeks as it shakes out the unbelievers. I’d like to see it come back just a little more before buying it but $24 is a good entry and you can buy more on a dip. I’d look for a sell price of $29-$30 within 18 months.

May is traditionally the month the biggest films of the year come out. I’m talking about the huge movies like Transformers, Star Wars, and of course this summer’s Iron Man.

Marvel, the entertainment juggernaut behind Iron Man and also the upcoming The Incredible Hulk is set to make a killing on these two movies. The hype machine has been hard at work for Iron Man but not a lot has come forth about The Incredible Hulk except for a few interviews with stars Tim Roth and Edward Norton. Both films look amazing but what does it mean for Wall Street. Can Marvel make you some money this summer?

Marvel Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: MVL) is a multi-media company. They make movies, comics and video games. Most people are familiar with their Icons like Spider Man, The Incredible Hulk, The X-Men and Iron Man. They also license these properties out to video game makers and television producers. Franchising is a major part of any entertainment company and Marvel is going to cash in this summer. There’s both an Iron Man game and a Hulk game coming out and new comics for both of these characters are already on shelves.

The stock is trading at 18 times earnings and looking at about 10% growth over the next year. At $30 a share it’s nearing the 52 week high once again and should it break that level we could be looking at a $40 stock. The average 10 day volume is around 700k shares so its thinly traded and not very volitile. They also don’t pay a dividend but the 52 week low was only $21. With a 10 point swing in either direction this is a solid performer and I see a short term price of $32 before the stock is even value. I don’t normally recommend buying a stock after it has run as much as this has, but I do see some opportunity here for a quick profit.

Not that its really going to solve much of the crisis we are in but the government hopes it will stem the bleeding of our economy. According to President Bush, “The money is going to help Americans offset the high prices we’re seeing at the gas pump, the grocery store and also give our economy a boost to help us pull out of this economic slowdown”

I’ll tell you where a lot of that money is going to go if it hasn’t already. Taxes. Yep, most average Americans are putting the money they owe on taxes onto their credit cards which just makes the situation worse and many are going to apply this rebate to those credit cards.

Not me. I’m buying a new bed and some much needed shelving for our house which should be about $1k of the $1500 I’m getting. That leaves a little money for investing and groceries. Sure, I could pay down more of my credit card debt but I’ll let my regular paycheck do that. ]]> http://theproficientinvestor.com/economic-stimulus-comes-4-days-early/feed/ http://theproficientinvestor.com/bluefly-web-conference-and-q1-results-may-1/ http://theproficientinvestor.com/bluefly-web-conference-and-q1-results-may-1/#comments Thu, 24 Apr 2008 20:02:38 +0000 James Wilcox http://theproficientinvestor.com/bluefly-web-conference-and-q1-results-may-1/ Bluefly will report results for Q1 May 7th, 2008 at 5pm.

After nearly losing their spot on NASDAQ earlier in the month and gaining a much needed $3 million cash infusion from primary shareholder George Soros, Bluefly and its shareholders approved a 1 for 10 reverse split putting the stock around $4.50. Since then, low volume has kept the stock from moving.

At this point its merely a waiting game. I wouldn’t advise buying any of this stock at this time.

I have shares of BFLY ]]> http://theproficientinvestor.com/bluefly-web-conference-and-q1-results-may-1/feed/ http://theproficientinvestor.com/apple-beats-lowers-guidance/ http://theproficientinvestor.com/apple-beats-lowers-guidance/#comments Wed, 23 Apr 2008 20:58:28 +0000 James Wilcox http://theproficientinvestor.com/apple-beats-lowers-guidance/ Apple topped Wall Street estimates for Q1 Today.

Quoted from marketwatch:

Apple (AAPL) earned $1.05 billion, or $1.16 a share, on $7.51 billion in revenue for the quarter, compared with the same period a year ago when Apple earned $770 million, or 87 cents a share, on sales of $5.26 billion.

The results topped Apple’s forecast of a profit of 94 cents a share and $6.8 billion in revenue. Analysts surveyed by FactSet Research had estimated Apple would earn $1.05 a share on sales of $7 billion.

Apple said that it sold 2.29 million Macintosh computers, 1.7 million iPhones and 10.6 million iPods during the quarter ended March 31.

For its fiscal third-quarter, Apple Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer said the company expects to earn $1 a share on revenue of $7.2 billion. Analysts had previously forecast Apple to earn $1.09 a share on $7.23 billion in sales.

Shares in after hours trading lost $7 or 4.3% after the news on the lowered guidance for the second quarter.

I smell a bargain coming. The last time Apple took a nosedive I made $600. Wait for the pullback and pull the trigger when the action levels off. Apple is one of the few juggernaut stocks that always seems to work its way out of these slumps.

Earnings were in line but with lowered guidance (by about a penny per share) due to rising costs in advertising and shipping. There’s an article on Seeking Alpha about the possible correlation between the writer’s strike last winter and the increase in stock price that may be due to more people going online to rent and watch movies. Really? You think the only reason for the increase in stock price over the past several months is because of a slew or Re-runs on TV? That’s absurd.

I think if you are going to make a correlation it’s more likely that there’s just not much good television on. Lost is hit and miss and Heroes has been offline since the beginning of the strike but even before that, television just isn’t as compelling anymore. More people are watching cable channels and movie channels but if we look specifically at Netflix, you’ll find they are offering superior service over anyone else out there.

With 75,000 titles including blu-ray and more of those titles being offered for their instant viewing service every day, Netflix is giving subscribers the most bang for their buck. The original decline in stock price can be attributed to Blockbuster’s(NYSE:BBI) attempt to gain footing in the same market and ultimately failing. While at first wooing customers from Netflix to Blockbuster, the pricing packages were impressive and the ability to turn in an online rental for an in-store rental but ultimately not sustainable and Blockbuster began phasing out the program as well as increasing subscriber fees. This basically led to a surge in subscribers coming back to Netflix and subsequently a rise in stock price.

I’ve already written about the valuation of Netflix and my $40 price target which has come and gone. So where does Netflix go from here? Even with the .01 cent variance in guidance, Netflix has 25% growth over the next year and 29 PE. Remember that institutional investors are willing to pay twice the growth in PE so that means on the low end you still have an upside price of $39 and on the high side a target price of $52.

On this pullback, I’d be buying NFLX right here, right now.

I do not own shares of Netflix or Blockbuster ]]> http://theproficientinvestor.com/the-future-of-netflix/feed/ http://theproficientinvestor.com/take-it-off-the-table/ http://theproficientinvestor.com/take-it-off-the-table/#comments Fri, 18 Apr 2008 18:17:11 +0000 James Wilcox http://theproficientinvestor.com/take-it-off-the-table/ I sold a few more shares of apple today for about a $200 gain and 100 shares of EMC for about $100 gain. It’s important in this kind of market to take the gains when you can. It’s ok to leave something on the table but you want to play with the house’s money.

Selling into strength (prices moving upward) is the best way to ensure you are profitable. Solid stocks like Apple and Google are great examples of buying on the way down and selling on the upside. You don’t make any money until you sell.

One I really like right now is EMC Corp (NYSE: EMC). EMC owns 80% of VMWare which makes virtulization software corporations use for testing systems before they roll them out. VMWare IPO’d this year to great success but has since fallen from its 52 week high of $125.25 to around $55. So the VMWare play is pretty much over and if you want to bank on the success of that company you want to be buying EMC. Here’s the rundown.

EMC is growing at 18% over the next year which translates to a 36 PE institutional investors are willing to pay. Multiply that PE by the current EPS and you get a price target of $27. At the current price EMC is a steal since its trading at only 19 times earnings currently.

Although they don’t pay a dividend and there hasn’t been much insider buying, most recently 160,000 stock options were exercised. I like the fact that there hasn’t been any insider selling since December of 2007 when 100k shares sold at $19.

Another stock I think is too cheap still is Apple. Even at $154 it is far below the high of $200 set earlier in the year and with the iPhone SDK out now we should start seeing some creative applications becoming available. You can read more about my thoughts on Apple in my other posts.

Today, I bought 100 shares of Quiksilver (NYSE:ZQK) at $9.98 to backup my original purchase of 30 shares at $15 roughly. At the time I had expected the purchase of Rossignol to be a boon for the company but it just didn’t work out. Here’s what I like about ZQK. First, they just won a trademark case against Kymsta Corp. which was using their “Roxy” label as well as “Roxywear”. Kymsta has 18 months to remove the usage. This will help the Roxy brand gain solid footing which is popular with the surf-girl crowd.

Second, Analysts hate this stock and recently downgraded it. Since my investment style is mainly contrarian, that is to say I don’t follow the crowd, this is the perfect opportunity to buy up this cheap stock. In the most recent quarter, ZQK reported a loss of $.12 cents per share which missed analysts estimates of $.10 cents per share. So what! Here’s a company with 45% growth based on next year’s earnings projections. That’s unbelievable and I think at $10 the stock is just too cheap. Since it’s a cyclical stock in the consumer apparel sector you can expect sales to increase over the next couple of months as the summer rolls in. With the economic stimulus package coming in May and a brand that has been around since 1970. Its one of the most recognized brands in the surf industry and one of the biggest. ZQK also owns Hawk Clothing, the company started by legendary skateboarder Tony Hawk. Need I say more?

On the sell block is Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX). This isn’t because I don’t like the stock. I recommended this stock in January when it was half the price it is now. Now I am saying, take some money off the table. At the current price and earnings, the stock is fair value. Now, some people like to buy stocks that are breaking new highs but I like to find the beaten down stocks of great companies and figure out where they should be. That’s how I set my sell target. Once I get there, I sell it and put it on radar. When a stock like Netflix is fair value and there isn’t much volume it doesn’t make sense to hold it hoping its going higher. If you’ve made money, take it. At least, take your original investment out and play with the house’s money. That’s what I’m doing with Apple.

I own stock in Apple, EMC and Quiksilver but hold no position in Netflix ]]> http://theproficientinvestor.com/long-term-cheap-stocks/feed/ http://theproficientinvestor.com/taking-gains-on-the-way-up/ http://theproficientinvestor.com/taking-gains-on-the-way-up/#comments Thu, 03 Apr 2008 18:31:06 +0000 James Wilcox http://theproficientinvestor.com/taking-gains-on-the-way-up/ Any sound investment strategy will have in place a plan for when to take profits. One of the biggest mistakes you can make investing is thinking that if you just hold a stock long enough you will make money. This is patently untrue and a dangerous way to play the market.

Take my recent Apple (AAPL) trade. I’ve been saying how Apple is underrated and how it was way oversold after hitting a 52 week high. I bought 24 shares at $130.00 when I felt the downside had been taken out and sideways price alluded to a bottom. Today I sold those 24 shares for a profit of $497. Why sell now? Simply put, I don’t want to be a pig. I know in the long term Apple is going to go back to the $200 a share level but as it rises I want to be peeling off my positions that are profitable. This way I can stay in the game longer and I’m not being greedy.

It’s important to recognize that in order to make money, you have to sell your stock. Numbers are just numbers. Paper profits, meaning that if you bought a stock low and now show a potential profit (but haven’t sold yet) are meaningless. Also by ringing in profits on the way up, it frees up capital that I can invest elsewhere. This is the way I invest. Buy beat up stocks of good companies on the way down, and as the price moves back up, sell off these blocks when they are profitable. It’s the only way to win in this kind of market.

I still own shares of Apple. ]]> http://theproficientinvestor.com/taking-gains-on-the-way-up/feed/ http://theproficientinvestor.com/bluefly-reports-q4-loss/ http://theproficientinvestor.com/bluefly-reports-q4-loss/#comments Wed, 26 Mar 2008 21:31:36 +0000 James Wilcox http://theproficientinvestor.com/bluefly-reports-q4-loss/ Bluefly (NASD: BFLY) reported a loss of $.04 cents per share compared to a loss of $.03 cents per share the previous year. Revenue increased 10% and increased 30% year over year.

Essentially, revenue is growing for the company but they are still operating at a loss because they haven’t been able to meet inventory demands and do not take backorders for inventory. Delays created losses to gross margins due to the inability to meet sales demands.

Marketing and Advertising expenses included a “shift in speding to support our partnership with Project Runway”.

(more…) ]]> http://theproficientinvestor.com/bluefly-reports-q4-loss/feed/ http://theproficientinvestor.com/revisiting-apple/ http://theproficientinvestor.com/revisiting-apple/#comments Thu, 20 Mar 2008 17:11:19 +0000 James Wilcox http://theproficientinvestor.com/revisiting-apple/ It’s been a while since I talked about Apple and why you should be buying it. Actually, you should have bought it when it was at $125 but if you missed that bottom, don’t worry. The price is still right and Apple is way too cheap.

Here’s a company with 22% growth over the next year and trading at 28 times earnings? Apple deserves a 44 multiple putting the stock at $200 where it should be. It’s going to go back there by the end of the year. Do yourself a favor and buy 5 shares for a 70 point gain this year.

iPods and MacBooks are still going to be the big sellers for birthday presents, Father’s Day, Mother’s Day, Christmas…not to mention if the iPhone prices go lower, that’s going to sell a lot more. The iPhone and the iPod touch are going to be bigger this year than last because of the new applications available. With Microsoft Exchange coming on board the iPhone, and likely the iPod Touch sometime after, it opens up the iPhone for corporate use.

That could be huge for Apple this year and would solidify the iPhone as a real competitor to RIMMs Blackberry. There’s too much going good for Apple to ignore it and the shorts are going to get caught with their pants down.

I own shares of Apple. ]]> http://theproficientinvestor.com/revisiting-apple/feed/ http://theproficientinvestor.com/checking-spam-can-lead-to-ideas/ http://theproficientinvestor.com/checking-spam-can-lead-to-ideas/#comments Wed, 19 Mar 2008 05:30:32 +0000 James Wilcox http://theproficientinvestor.com/checking-spam-can-lead-to-ideas/ I check my spam folder on this blog every day. I check it because although Akismet is really good at catching nearly all the spam, sometimes legitimate comments get relegated to the trash pile.

In the past month I have had so many spam comments about Phentermine, it’s unbelievable. Phentermine I guess is a weight loss pill. Now, I don’t know why spammers have targeted my blog for this except that at some point in a post I probably mentioned losing weght and voila, now I’m a prime target for this junk.

Its sad enough that people think a pill is going to do what a good nutritional diet and regular exercise do naturally. There is no magic bullet or pill that is going to shed unwanted pounds, no matter how scientifically proven it is.

That being said, sometimes you don’t know what to write about and that’s where I got the idea for this post.

You want to make sure you check your Akismet folder as often as you can stand it. My eyes nearly blurred at all the same phrases I was seeing. One of the good things though is I didn’t see a lot in terms of content scraping. Either those idiots stopped pulling my feeds or they took down their blogs. That stuff is out of control. Many a time I have had to move comments back out of the Akismet folder so they would show up. I do wish however that I got some kind of notification…instead I just have to remind myself to check the folder.

None of this really has to do with investing…unless of course you own a pharmaceutical company that makes Phentermine. (more…) ]]> http://theproficientinvestor.com/checking-spam-can-lead-to-ideas/feed/ http://theproficientinvestor.com/how-not-to-pick-stocks/ http://theproficientinvestor.com/how-not-to-pick-stocks/#comments Tue, 18 Mar 2008 17:45:01 +0000 James Wilcox http://theproficientinvestor.com/how-not-to-pick-stocks/ If you are any kind of subscriber to a financial newspaper like The Wall Street Journal or Investors Business Daily, chances are you have also had your address sold to other similar news sources.

The problem is, some of these sources aren’t reliable and are only trying to get you to buy into a particular stock because it will benefit the people behind the pressing. I get these full color newsletters all the time. Almost always, these are OTC or Pink Sheet stocks that trade under $10. Most trade far under that, even going sub-penny (never a good investment).

(more…) ]]> http://theproficientinvestor.com/how-not-to-pick-stocks/feed/ http://theproficientinvestor.com/free-pennystocking-dvd/ http://theproficientinvestor.com/free-pennystocking-dvd/#comments Mon, 17 Mar 2008 20:17:33 +0000 James Wilcox http://theproficientinvestor.com/free-pennystocking-dvd/ Here’s your chance to learn from one of the best penny stock traders in the business. Tomothy Sykes, author of An American Hedge Fund: How I Made $2 Million as a Stock Operator & Created a Hedge Fund, is giving away his instructional DVD, Pennystocking.

This DVD is packed with detailed instruction on how to read penny stock charts so you can pick stocks that have the greatest potential to gain or lose on the day, allowing you to buy or short these stocks.

Timothy Sykes made a fortune trading thousands of penny stocks in his 4 years in college starting with only $12,415.00 and turning it into $2 million then started his own hedge fund called Cilantro Fund. If anyone knows how to win in the penny stock market, Tim does.

Now is your chance to win his DVD and learn his techniques first-hand. Normally, this DVD costs $297 but you can win it simply by commenting on this post. I’ve already commented, good luck to the rest of you. ]]> http://theproficientinvestor.com/free-pennystocking-dvd/feed/ http://theproficientinvestor.com/profit-takers-rule-the-day/ http://theproficientinvestor.com/profit-takers-rule-the-day/#comments Sat, 15 Mar 2008 01:18:51 +0000 James Wilcox http://theproficientinvestor.com/profit-takers-rule-the-day/ My overall portfolio sagged today, but I wanted to mention two of my stocks here. First, Bluefly closed up .03 cents at .46 cents on the PR about the stock split. This is action from investors trying to boost the price a little higher pre-split to make the resulting price higher…probably so they can short it after it tops $5 a share.  I don’t care, I’ll have 347 shares after the reverse split.

Next, RUNU as I predicted dropped to .68 cents on just under 70k shares trading. I guess that $1 support level just couldn’t hold against the resistance. Rudy must not be pushing that PR train hard enough yet. I expect some crazy trading in this stock soon…keep an eye on it.

TGIF!

Bluefly’s symbol will change to BFLYD to reflect the split for 20 days after which it will again revert back to BFLY.

This has been a long time coming IMO. Management should have seen the writing on the wall and done this much earlier. Although this is a move in the right direction to meet NASDAQ continued listing requirements, its no guarantee Qualifications panel will accept it which means ultimately that BFLY could be relegated to the OTC market until such a time as they can again meet the strict requirements of trading on the NASDAQ.

Does it matter? Not really. Even if they move to the OTCBB listings, its still a real company that you can track sales and figures on. It’s still speculative and the retail business hasn’t been doing well at all, but I’m sticking with BFLY.

I own shares of BFLY. ]]> http://theproficientinvestor.com/bluefly-announces-reverse-split/feed/ http://theproficientinvestor.com/never-trust-a-stock-picker/ http://theproficientinvestor.com/never-trust-a-stock-picker/#comments Fri, 14 Mar 2008 00:35:48 +0000 James Wilcox http://theproficientinvestor.com/never-trust-a-stock-picker/ Here’s exactly why you should never trust anyone that claims to have a proven system to pick winning stocks.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23578967/

Crooks abound everywhere folks, and there’s always some sucker willing to give away their money. Anyone who says they have a sure-fire system that can pick winning stocks all the time is lying. You can make predictions and assumptions based on past performance and several other factors, but there is no sure way to win by trading stocks. If someone tells you they have information on such-and-such company and you could make a lot of money on their stock, just turn around and walk away because you’re more likely to go to jail than cash in.  That’s called insider trading and it’s illegal no matter how you look at it.

Hope your trading day was profitable. RUNU took a dive today but not much. I’m still waiting for the volume to pick up and edge over my average price.