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The Proficient Investor

Stock Market News, Contrarian Investing, Stock Picks

Archive for July, 2010

Predictable Penny Stock Trading

Posted by Tim Sykes On July - 15 - 2010
Penny stocks are for sketchy suckers, right? I mean if you’ve spent any time watching Jim Cramer on CNBC he’ll tell you that you can never make money trading penny stocks because it’s like “the Wild West”. There’s snake oil salesmen and cowboys everywhere just waiting to sling their guns on you and take your cash.

Well, while some of that is true, the reality is you need to learn how to read the signs of penny stocks. You need to learn how to read the charts and recognize the patterns that lead to profits. You need to learn from the best. This is why i’ve invited well known penny stock trader Timothy Sykes to write for the blog today.

Successful investing and trading boils down to predictability. There are many markets that are predictable for short and long periods of time, but it’s difficult to know how long such predictability will last.

Many would say that BP plc (BP)’s continued decline in the weeks and months after the oil spill was predictable, but then again, many were wrong with their immediate and “confident” doomsday predictions, so far, as they predicted the stock would continue sliding into single digits…totally missing the near 40% bounce off the lows in recent days.

The same kind of “confident” predictions were made about Greece and the euro sliding into oblivion and yet both have bounce substantially as it looks like the doomsday predictors were wrong…so far.

We don’t even need to go into these panic/disaster situations, a perfect example of how difficult predictability is Intel Corporation (INTC)’s blow out earnings the other night and how the stock was up big-time afterhours which led overnight futures to surge with many pundits calling for a major technology, not to mention overall stock market, rally to take place…no dice…never happened….INTC opened up huge then gradually down trended all day, their superior earnings seemingly already priced in.

Long story short: “confident” financial market prediction is for suckers.

There are far too many variables floating around for the news, let alone investors and traders, to ever be able to grasp and analyze everything well enough to make any kind of supremely confident predictions.
But that’s exactly why penny stocks should be considered as a predictable market. Let me explain…
This overly simplistic, hugely manipulated, much despised market niche is everything the rest of the financial markets are not: easily predictable.

Unlike forex, ETFs, futures, there are no hugely intelligent people working around the clock, considering every single potential profit angle and using complex algorithms to test out the reliability of various data sets and chart patterns.

Penny Stocks are only traded , promoted, manipulated and invested in by the dumbest, most greedy people in the world.

Sometimes Penny stock companies are either fraudulent or incompetent or both with short and longterm statistics proving that more than 99% of them utterly fail in every conceivable way.

In short, the players and the companies are predictable which is why I specialize in this underappreciated (thankfully) niche and why it’s not just possible/probable for me to earn index-and-everyone-else crushing returns, it’s possible/probable for me to be able to teach you too….this ain’t rocket science folks.

Please do learn from this short video lesson series I’ve put together.

7 Important Penny Stock Trading Lessons

Posted by Tim Sykes On July - 13 - 2010
Today I’ve invited Tim Sykes to be a guest blogger on the site and help us understand pennystocks MUCH better! He’s a powerful trader in this niche, and he’s actually got a new video series that you should check out here. Please enjoy the article and be sure and get these free video lessons before he pulls them.
I have an entire category of blog posts with the basics of my proven trading strategy, but below I thought I’d list the top 10. Not necessarily the top 7 most important, as you know from this list of 94 PennyStocking lessons there’s a lot to consider, but the 10 lessons below are the ones I’ve found people have been having the most trouble with since I began teaching over the past 3 years or so:
  1. Unlike other niches and due to a lack of liquidity and sometimes volatility, there are NOT great trades every day. It’s it CRUCIAL to learn to recognize these setups and then to wait for ideal setups before using your precious trading capital.
  2. When short selling penny stocks, not every broker will have available shares to short. There is no one great broker that will always have available shares and sometimes none of my brokers have available shares to short (in which case no borrow no cry), but the 3 brokers I use and recommend are Thinkorswim, Sogotrade and Interactive Brokers
  3. No matter how great a penny stock’s story is, I have learned to focus on chart patterns and price action first — there are a TON of penny stocks with “revolutionary” products, but if the stock isn’t moving in a way that is predictable, I don’t care.
  4. NEVER trust any penny stock press release or penny stock CEO or penny stock newsletter. The entire niche is corrupt excluding yours truly and no matter how nice somebody is in person, if they are into penny stocks, there is a 99.99% likelihood that they are shady, unethical, incompetent or some mix of all of the above.
  5. I will not trade stocks under 10 cents/share because the risk/reward simply is not worth it. Sure, sure, these low priced stocks can increase a large percent in a short period of time, but in 11 years of penny stock trading experience, I have not seen the predictability/reliability of any patterns to make buying or shorting these stocks worthwhile for me.
  6. While I sometimes short sell a pumped up penny stock on its “first big up day”, I usually tend to wait until the 2nd or 3rd day as then my risk is much lower due to early wannabe short sellers having been squeezed and the logic that fewer people will want to buy a penny stock when it’s up 100, 200, 300% in a few days. The exception is when there are few shares to short and it will be unlikely to find available shares to short on those 3nd or 3rd up days so I will sometimes risk some pain and enter my short early, but NEVER a large position due to the risk of further spiking.
  7. If the penny stock I am short selling or buying is not a pure pump & dump (which have the highest predictability), I will ALWAYS cut losses quickly because if a stock moves against me, even a little bit, I am probably wrong in my thesis. I am not a perfect trader by any means so if I don’t cut losses quickly, it means I have made a mistake. Yes it does happen. My substantial gains are not due to my being perfect, but as an academic study found, due in large part to my being right approximately 75% of the time with my gains being larger than my losses.

For more lessons like these, check out Tim’s free video series so you can learn the secrets to making huge profits on penny stocks. He’s taught hundreds of people how to do this and many of them make more money than he does. I’ve found the original Pennystocking DVD has great information if you are just getting started trading penny stocks. But don’t just take my word for it. Read all the testimonials and decide for yourself.

10-Year Treasuries – Bad Investment

Posted by Kirk On July - 12 - 2010

That’s right I said it – short the 10-year treasury bonds. They have been on a huge upswing of late and there will come a time when interest rates HAVE to rise to counter balance the debt structure of the US. It’s not going to happen overnight, but after nearly every single recession bond prices eventually fall hard.

When this happens, bond prices will fall dramatically so as to entice people to come back and buy more bonds. Here’s where we are right now. Also notice the huge spread between the 50-day and 200-day moving average.


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Traded Index Futures – Index Charting

Posted by Kirk On July - 1 - 2010

Looking at a chart of the major traded index futures from yesterday and you can clearly see we are heading lower this morning. It could just be the technical break of the 1,040 level on the SPX that is causing the commotion. Remember we warned about it’s consequences earlier this week?

Now are are flirting with a major support break and a possible “lower low” signaling the final trend higher has changed.


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