Thursday, March 11, 2010

The Proficient Investor

Stock Market News, Contrarian Investing, Stock Picks

Archive for October, 2008

Apple Bottoms, Blows Away Quarter to Rebound

Posted by James Wilcox On October - 29 - 2008
Apple Inc (AAPL) recently surprised even the most devout follower by blowing away the numbers in the latest quarter.

As readers of this blog know, part of my long term strategy is to buy beat up stocks of solid companies. Apple has been and will continue to be one of these companies. Apple continues to reinvent itself year after year with products that are not only cool but integral to how we do business, enjoy spare time and create.

Apple’s products are sold worldwide and the iPod alone is recognized widely as the device that most changed people’s lives. I know the iPod touch I own changed my life. Without it, I wouldn’t watch/listen to half of the podcasts I do now.

All that aside, the company continues to succeed even in these dark and trying times. The App Store, as I’ve discussed with several others on Twitter is what is really helping Apple earn more than their peers in this economy. Although it would seem for the most part that Apple is fashion over function, with the iPhone as popular as it is, everyone is looking for productivity in droves. Gadgets are supposed to make our lives easier and more manageable and why not make them look good as well. This is what sets Apple apart from 90% of other companies.

Even Google’s Android platform and the new G1 mobile phone don’t come close to the look and feel Apple has with the iPhone. Plus, Apple fanboys are diehards and will always buy their products. Sales of the 3G iPhone were phenomenal and have helped keep the company above water.

The recent downtrend in the stock price has been a combination of massive selling and liquidation by hedge funds, coupled with short selling pressure that has taken its toll on the stock, but not the company.

If you got stock at the bottom, be prepared to peel it off into this strength. I buy in stages on the way down so I can pull profits as the stock recovers to previous levels, which it will.

Jim Cramer mentioned on his Mad Money program Tuesday that Apple is the bellweather stock for this market and I agree. It’s affordable, oversold and on track to record profits.

I own shares of AAPL.

The Tale of Two Types of Market Participants

Posted by Investor Michael On October - 28 - 2008
Earlier this month the Oracle of Omaha told the public to buy for the long term much like he was doing. We are down roughly 7% since Warren Buffets call. But is he wrong? Perhaps its how you analyze that. I myself now am a long term investor, a value investor at that. Right now I see values aplenty, and have been a buyer of equities for the better part of the year (dollar cost averaging on high-quality consumer staples mostly). I sacrifice short term pain for long term substantial gain. For clear honesty I have also been a short term trader.

This is what the current market entails for investors. There are long term investors and there are short term traders. Both have the same principle of wanting to make money. Traders can make solid gains in seconds or minutes, and maybe even a few days. Investors however have a long term view of 1-15 years depending on their investment approach. 

For more than a year traders have performed a bit better than buy and hold investors, hence all the volatility from minute to minute in the markets. Its a great tug-of-war that shows no signs of letting up. Until the economy and credit markets stabilize we will see this type of activity. For buy and hold investors many of them will dollar cost average in order to gain a lower average price paid per share. The reason behind this is because value and growth investors know that in the future the markets will pick back up and economic activity around the world will one day gain steam leading to substantially higher equity prices.

Too Cheap To Let It Go

Posted by James Wilcox On October - 15 - 2008
This market is like a roller coaster right now. The dow is swinging 1000 points almost daily. Banks are failing or being bailed out by the government, 150 year old brokerage houses declaring bankruptcy. What’s an investor to do?

Well, there is some good news. You can put your money in companies that have cash on hand like Wells Fargo (WFC) whom I happen to work for and is one of the only financial institutions showing positive numbers through all this mess.

You can also look for stocks that have just gotten too cheap as the hedge funds insvested in them have sold off in massive amounts to free up capital. Stocks like Apple, Goldman Sachs (who is now becoming a deposit bank), Intel. These guys are all trading far below their real value, if you trade long. That is you hold positions for 6-18 months. If you are more comfortable day trading, it’s going to be harder to pick stocks like these and I suggest you do the following:

  1. Buy the Pennystocking DVD sold by Timothy Sykes (you can also get a free copy of his book).
  2. Learn to short sell. Volitile markets like this are perfect hunting grounds for shorting stocks (yes you can still short stocks)
  3. Stay on top of your portfolio on a daily basis.

One of the best pieces of advice I have heard from any guru, be it Tim Sykes or Jim Cramer or even Warren Buffett is that if you don’t have time to spend investigating your investments and trades then you shouldn’t be managing your own money.

I also think you shouldn’t blindly pick some random ETF or Mutual Fund as you are just as likely to fail with that than anything. If you don’t want to manage your money you can do something very simple with it. Buy a 6 month CD and let it sit and appreciate. It’s not sexy, it’s not exciting but it is a guaranteed return on investment.

Me, I like playing with my money. Sure, it seems like gambling but the odds are so much better when you are educated about what you are doing.

You need to read some books. Any and all of the books at the top of this blog i highly recommend. Try starting with “How To Make Money In The Stock Market”.

You should also be willing to speculate with some of your money. Speculation is healthy and can lead to much bigger gains over shorter periods than investing long. I try not to make “stock picks” in the traditional sense. Someone even told me I was full of BS because my blog title had the word stock picks in it a while ago. I try to tell you what I do and what I would do in certain situations.

For example, I just bought shares of Crystallex International (KRY) a canadian gold mining company with assets in Venezuela that are yet to be exploited pending government regulatory measures. Should this mine open, the stock could skyrocket since gold as a commodity does very well in downturn economies. That being said, the stock is, in my opinion, too cheap. At just above $.51 cents you can afford to buy it without breaking your bank if it goes south. KRY has a tendency to trade around the dollar range so a quick double is possible if not incredibly likely. Momentum can easily carry KRY to $2 or higher and trending like that feeds of itself.

I half expect some pro pumper to be selling this one to unwary investors anytime now. That being said, I will tell you in full disclosure that I do own shares of KRY. I’m not trying to pump it here, you could lose money buying it but you could also make a lot if you trade it right.

I don’t like to recommend scalping a stock but this looks good to me.

The Market’s Death Spiral

Posted by Investor Michael On October - 9 - 2008
If there is any good to come out of what is happening right now in the financial markets it is this. We can say to our children that we witnessed a catastrophic decline in equity markets. It happened during the first Great Depression in the 1930’s and its happening today. An era of excess and outright sick greed has led up to this. But I will say this, this market has the same characteristics of alot of other markets that we have lived through. The dot-com boom was witness to an unprecedented rise in technology and Internet stocks. The fall-out that followed the run-up was more or less the same thing we are seeing right now.


I don’t know when this market will stop falling, but there will come a time when it does and the relief rally we will see will be nothing short of breathtaking. I foresee the market rallying as much as 1,500 points on the Dow. Fear for the most part is at every nook and cranny of the financial markets, not to mention hitting home on every block in America. 

As far as the economy goes I believe we have more pain to go through, and much of the painful malaise will not abate until late 2009. The government has been doing plenty to help alleviate fears and the frozen credit markets, but it will take time to work through the system. 

Until then expect more or the same, more uncertainty and fear. Stick it out and be wise. Those that pull out of the market always wind up missing the ride up!

Fear Is Driving The Market

Posted by James Wilcox On October - 8 - 2008
We are in a bear market, there’s no doubt about that but even in bear markets you can find solid stocks to buy. In one of my accounts I own Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) because it’s a solid performing gold stock. I don’t like to own commodities directly but I will buy decent stocks that are directly involved in that business.

Your best bet in times like this is to stay on the sidelines but I understand sometimes you can’t. The account that covestor tracks is in this situation but that’s ok. It looks bad because of the stocks I have which a large chunk of my portfolio are invested in. My timeline is always 6-18 months and we are moving into a down cycle for these stocks. Apple being one of them, but some others are EMC and ZQK.

A healthy portfolio should have some speculation and it’s ok to make some quick trades if you think you can profit. Just keep in mind the pattern day trading rule and you should be fine.

I like the gold stocks GG and HMY which are very strong right now.

I don’t think you need to liquidate your entire portfolio just because on paper it looks like you’ve lost money. Markets fluctuate and this is just a correction that has been a long time coming.

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