Last month rumors swirled around that the “King of Beers” was the target of a takeover attempt by a foreign company. Not long after that speculation turned out to be somewhat true. Belgium based InBev is reportedly in talks to acquire the St. Louis based beer company for roughly $46 billion. Although InBev has not officially commented on published reports, it appears that a bid may not be far off. The big question is whether it will be a hostile attempt or a friendly one.
Those banking on a friendly deal are in the minority. BUD’s current management does not favor a deal as they wish to remain independent in the face of worldwide industry consolidation. Both its Chairman & CEO are the ones trying to remain independent at all costs. However, some Busch family members have been reported to be interested in a takeover as one of the only ways to increase its sagging stock price and to better compete with its peers. InBev has been known for being more of a company that builds through acquisitions rather than organically, a stark difference with that of Anheuser. BUD has more or less kept itself free of major deals in the past several years, unlike many large players in the industry.
One of the main reasons why Inbev wants to do a deal centers on cost savings and synergies. According to reports, InBev believe it can scratch out $1.4 billion in annual cost savings. Having ownership of a beer company that controls roughly half of the US beer market is tremendous given the ability to reach millions of beer thirsty Americans. For InBev, another reason why a deal would be sweet is because of the value (or lack thereof) of the Dollar vs the currency its common stock currently is valued in.
Not many obstacles exist in acquiring BUD, for one the Busch family only controls roughly 4% of its common stock. Warren Buffet owns about 5% of the shares through Berkshire Hathaway. They currently do not have a poison pill that would make a hostile bid impossible. The only option would be if BUD acquires the other 50% of Grupo Modelo that it does not currently own. That $10-15 billion deal would make a bid by InBev virtually impossible due to expanded price tag.
One of the other issues with a deal for BUD would be the American factor. You don’t need me to tell you that Anhesuer is an American icon. However since BUD is owned by shareholders I don’t see them turning down a potential deal due to its reported value for the shares. At the end of the day we may have to say goodbye to BUD as a solely American company. The dynamics of business, capitalism and the beer industry have changed.
* Currently Long Anheuser shares. Did sell 50% of my position @ $58 for a 22.5% gain.