Thursday, March 11, 2010

The Proficient Investor

Stock Market News, Contrarian Investing, Stock Picks

2007 Holiday Season Picks

Posted by James Wilcox On October - 9 - 2007
Every year around this time I like to go down my list of investments and possible investments and pick the ones I think are going to do well during the holiday shopping season. Since many of the companies that do well are retail based, it might seem like an easy thing to do. Just pick up the phone book, open a page, point to a company and see if they are publicly traded right?

Not exactly.

Instead of just picking something at random, we want to use the same approach to our long term investments as we do with short term. Essentially, I am still looking for growth (value) but in a shorter time frame. Instead of 6-18 months we are looking at 3 months. So what can you buy that’s going to net you some profit in 3 months? The few stocks I think are worth it are below.

Apple, Inc.(AAPL) - I know this stock is up, way up, but you have to look at the growth. It’s darn good and the new iPod line is hot. This company continues to outperform the market year after year. Last year in September we called Apple a buy at $90. Now I am saying it’s still a buy at $168-$170 because this stock is going to $200. Don’t think so? Remember when Google was at $200 and people balked? Apple had blowout numbers last quarter which is why the stock is still up, even after the iPhone pricing fiasco. They quickly resolved their customer support issues and then came out with a brand new line of iPods just in time for the holiday shopping season. This is the shrewdest tech company out there.

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) – American who the whatsit? You know this brand, you see them in the malls. The rub here is the earnings to yield ratio is the highest of any retailer in the same sector. We like this a lot because it means sustainable growth. AEO currently trades at only 14 times earnings, well below the 20 it deserves. Look for a $36-$38 target.

Arch Coal (ACI) – We got this one right last year around the same time and held a core position. Growth here is astonishing at 105% over the next fiscal year. It’s beginning to cool off both on the west coast and east and especially in the north so look for coal prices to continue to rise. With the price of gasoline in constant flux and the demand going through the roof because of the war in Iraq (which doesn’t seem to be ending within the next year) coal becomes a very attractive commodity. I see a $40 price tag short term.

These aren’t the only stocks out there worth trading and I urge you to do some homework and find what works for you.

In other news, we have purchased a page on the Million Euro Wiki that details the idea behind investing and saving your money for the future. You will see the 3 stocks above mentioned on our page “Investing“. The basics of how I invest are laid out there and the reasons why you should be investing as well as the types of investments available. Stocks aren’t always the best thing to invest in depending on your financial outlook and the kinds of returns you expect.

If you act now and use coupon code “Flagusco” when you order a Million Euro Wiki page you can save 10% off the purchase. You will also be automatically entered in the drawing for a brand new 16GB Apple iPod Touch for every 25 pages sold. Two have already been given away, one to yours truly and one to John Chow of JohnChow.com.

Happy Trading!

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